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Solar usage

Run cdae3a56cd3d4dcb · 2026-10-18T15:07:25 · END

3
Sources
19
Evidence
10
Claims
2
Verified
0
Contradictions
3
Rounds
Report
Claim Courtroom
Sources
Coverage Map
Contradictions
Audit Trail
Certificate

Final Report

Solar Usage: Research Report

Executive Summary

Verified evidence supports one finding on solar usage: global installed solar photovoltaic capacity reached 2,383 GW at the end of 2025 ✓evidence:db3ac4cae66a. Over the 2010–2025 period, global solar PV capacity grew 59-fold ✓evidence:2194cffa6178. Only two claims passed verification, and both address the scale and growth trajectory subquestion. The remaining five subquestions have no verified claims and cannot be answered from this evidence set.

1. Scale and Growth Trajectory of Solar Usage (subquestion 5eb95c2e99c4)

Installed capacity

World solar photovoltaic installed capacity reached 2,383 GW at the end of 2025 ✓evidence:db3ac4cae66a. The source reports that 510 GW was added in that single year evidence:db3ac4cae66a.

Growth

Global solar PV capacity increased 59-fold between 2010 and 2025 ✓evidence:2194cffa6178. The underlying source describes this as growth from 40 GW in 2010 to 2,383 GW in 2025 evidence:2194cffa6178.

Evidence Used

World solar photovoltaic installed capacity reached 2,383 GW at end-2025, with 510 GW added in a single year.

Global Solar PV Installed Capacity 2025: 2,383 GW — IRENA Data | Solar Data Atlas · Trust 60%

Global solar PV capacity grew from 40 GW in 2010 to 2,383 GW in 2025 — a 59-fold increase in 15 years.

Global Solar PV Installed Capacity 2025: 2,383 GW — IRENA Data | Solar Data Atlas · Trust 60%

Claim Courtroom

World solar photovoltaic installed capacity reached 2,383 GW at the end of 2025.
supported (70%)

Passage db3ac4cae66a states that world solar PV installed capacity 'reached 2,383 GW at end-2025,' which matches the claim's figure, date, and metric. The prosecution's objections concern corroboration (single source), the unstated DC/AC basis, possible provisional revision, and measurement method. These are qualifiers the claim does not assert, so they do not contradict the claim as written. They do limit how confidently the figure can be treated as settled, which is why confidence is moderate rather than high. No passage contradicts the figure.

Missing: An independent second source confirming 2,383 GW at end-2025. A statement of whether the figure is DC or AC and whether it is provisional or final.

The world added 510 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity in 2025.
partially_supported (55%)

Passage db3ac4cae66a reports '510 GW added in a single year' in the same sentence as the end-2025 stock figure. The 510 GW magnitude and the word 'added' match the claim. However, the passage does not explicitly name 2025 as the year of addition; that link is inferred from proximity to the end-2025 figure. The passage also does not establish whether 510 GW is gross or net additions, which the prosecution raised and which bears on the meaning of 'added.' The magnitude is verified, but the year attribution and the gross/net characterization are not fully verified.

Missing: An explicit statement that the 510 GW figure refers to calendar year 2025. A clarification of whether the figure is gross or net additions. Independent corroboration.

Global solar PV capacity was 40 GW in 2010.
unsupported (65%)

Passage 2194cffa6178 states that global solar PV capacity 'grew from 40 GW in 2010,' which directly maps to the claim's figure and year. The stock-versus-annual reading is reasonably implied by the passage's framing as a growth trajectory toward a 2025 stock figure. The prosecution's concerns about the reference date, DC/AC basis, and comparability are valid qualifiers but do not contradict the claim. The '59-fold' rounding point concerns a derived statistic outside the claim and does not affect this verdict. Confidence is moderated by single-source dependence and the unstated reference date.

Missing: Confirmation of the reference date (for example, end-2010) and the measurement basis. An independent source for the 2010 baseline.

Global solar PV capacity increased 59-fold between 2010 and 2025.
supported (72%)

The defense passage states that global solar PV capacity grew from 40 GW in 2010 to 2,383 GW in 2025, described as a 59-fold increase. This maps directly onto the claim's wording and endpoints. The prosecution's objections concern rounding (59.6x vs. 59-fold), the ambiguity of 'increased 59-fold' versus 'grew to 59 times,' the undefined AC/DC capacity basis, whether 2025 is a provisional figure, and the single unnamed source. These are real limitations on precision and corroboration, but they do not contradict the stated multiplier, which the source itself reports. The confidence is reduced because the basis, finality, and corroboration are not established in the record.

Missing: The capacity basis (AC or DC), whether the 2025 figure is final, an explicit statement of rounding, and an independent source for the 2010 baseline and 2025 endpoint.

China had 1,200 GW of solar PV capacity at the end of 2025.
partially_supported (50%)

The cited passage supports the figure of 1,200 GW for China's solar PV capacity. However, the passage contains no date, so the qualifier 'at the end of 2025' is not verified by the cited evidence. The claim's precision is also not established, since the source gives only a rounded figure, and the capacity basis (AC or DC) is unstated.

Missing: A dated source confirming that the 1,200 GW figure refers to year-end 2025, along with the capacity basis and the precision of the figure.

China's solar PV capacity exceeded the combined capacity of the next nine countries (967 GW).
partially_supported (60%)

The passage directly states that China's 1,200 GW exceeds the combined 967 GW of the next nine countries, which matches the claim's comparison and figure. Several components remain unverified: the ranking basis and identity of the 'next nine countries' are not listed, the date of the 967 GW figure is not stated (and is implicitly assumed to match the 1,200 GW date, which is itself unverified), and the claim relies on the same single unnamed source. The prosecution's arithmetic check (global 2,383 GW less 1,200 and 967 GW leaves about 216 GW for all other countries) suggests that the global, China, and next-nine figures should be checked for consistency in date and basis. This is a cross-check concern, not a demonstrated contradiction, but it prevents full support.

Missing: A list of the next nine countries with their capacities, the ranking basis, a shared date and capacity basis across the global, China, and next-nine figures, and an independent source.

Europe had 405 GW of solar PV capacity at the end of 2025.
partially_supported (60%)

Passage 46d3405798a5 states that Europe reached 405 GW of solar PV at end-2025, which matches the claim's figure and date. No evidence contradicts the number. However, the defense cites only this one passage. The prosecution refers to a different passage (1c6a277a4da4) as the source, and the record does not show that passage, so the sourcing is inconsistent. The geographic scope of 'Europe' and the DC/AC basis are not defined in the supplied arguments, and neither side resolves them. The number is directly supported as stated, but the claim lacks the scope and methodology needed to fully verify it.

Missing: A definition of the geographic scope of 'Europe' (EU, EU+EFTA+UK, or full continent), the DC/AC convention, data vintage or methodology, reconciliation of the two cited passage IDs, and at least one independent corroborating source.

Europe's solar PV capacity represented 17% of global solar PV capacity at the end of 2025.
partially_supported (55%)

Passage 46d3405798a5 directly states '17% of global' for end-2025, so the stated share is matched to the source. The support is not independent, since it comes from the same passage as the 405 GW figure. The global denominator is not stated in the supplied materials, so the ratio cannot be checked. The 17% figure is also presented without a rounding qualifier, and the DC/AC and date consistency between numerator and denominator is unverified.

Missing: The global solar PV total at end-2025 and its DC/AC basis, confirmation that numerator and denominator share definition and date, an independent source for the share, and a rounding qualifier or range.

The known segments (utility, commercial and industrial, and residential) cover about 41% of total on-grid solar capacity.
partially_supported (50%)

Passage d975432698dc states that the known segments (utility, C&I, residential) cover about 41% of total on-grid capacity. The number and segment list match the claim. The claim omits the qualifier 'only', which the defense treats as a framing difference, but the prosecution argues it signals a large coverage gap that matters for interpretation. The passage's use of 'therefore' indicates a derivation from figures not in the record, so the 41% is not independently verifiable from the supplied materials. The geographic scope and date are unspecified, and the claim's placement next to the European claims invites an unsupported regional reading.

Missing: The underlying segment-level figures and derivation behind the 41% estimate, the geographic scope (Europe, global, or other), the data vintage, and an explanation of what 'known segments' and the remaining ~59% represent.

The Inflation Reduction Act (2022) has significantly boosted solar deployment since 2023.
partially_supported (25%)

The only evidence offered by the defense (d1a6bceedd82) is a near-verbatim restatement of the claim. It is circular and cannot independently verify the assertion that the IRA significantly boosted deployment. The one component it does establish is the enactment year: the IRA was enacted in 2022, which the passage states and the prosecution does not dispute. The core substantive components are not supported. 'Significantly' has no quantification. No installation data, growth rates, or baseline comparison is provided. The causal attribution to the IRA is not isolated from other drivers the prosecution identified, such as cost declines, interest rates, and state policy. The 'since 2023' time frame has no defined end point or baseline. The prosecution's cited source (1c6a277a4da4) was not rebutted or substantiated by the defense. The prosecution's fairness note is also relevant: a plausible mechanism exists (the IRA's extended solar tax credits and direct-pay provisions), but the record does not show its magnitude.

Missing: Quantitative deployment data (e.g., annual installed solar capacity before and after 2022/2023); a counterfactual or baseline projection excluding the IRA; analysis that separates the IRA's contribution from cost, interest-rate, and state-policy effects; a defined time window; and a substantive excerpt from source 1c6a277a4da4 showing measured (not projected) deployment changes.

Sources

TitleURLTrustHash
Global Solar PV Installed Capacity 2025: 2,383 GW https://www.solardataatlas.com/en/data-s… 60% f567a95f
Top 10 Countries by Solar Power Capacity 2026... https://stakeandpaper.com/news/top-10-co… 30% 944dd412
Top 100 Countries by Installed Solar Capacity 2026 https://statranker.org/economy/resources… 35% dedb8079

Coverage Map

What is the current scale and growth trajectory of solar usa yellow · 50%

Evidence: 8 · Sources: 3 · Verified claims: 0 · Contradictions: 0

How does solar usage vary across geographic regions and coun yellow · 50%

Evidence: 8 · Sources: 3 · Verified claims: 0 · Contradictions: 0

How is solar usage distributed across sectors (residential, red · 10%

Evidence: 1 · Sources: 1 · Verified claims: 0 · Contradictions: 0

What economic factors drive or limit solar usage, including red · 0%

Evidence: 0 · Sources: 0 · Verified claims: 0 · Contradictions: 0

What policies, incentives, and regulations influence solar u red · 10%

Evidence: 1 · Sources: 1 · Verified claims: 0 · Contradictions: 0

What technical and infrastructure barriers constrain solar u red · 10%

Evidence: 1 · Sources: 1 · Verified claims: 0 · Contradictions: 0

Contradiction Radar

No contradictions detected.

Audit Trail

State Transitions

PLAN 2026-10-18T15:07:25 — Starting research planning
SEARCH 2026-10-18T15:07:32 — Round 1: generating queries
RETRIEVE 2026-10-18T15:07:38 — Fetching sources
EXTRACT_EVIDENCE 2026-10-18T15:07:40 — Extracting evidence
SCORE_SOURCES 2026-10-18T15:07:47 — Scoring source quality
DRAFT_ATOMIC_CLAIMS 2026-10-18T15:07:52 — Drafting claims
CLAIM_COURTROOM 2026-10-18T15:07:57 — Running Claim Courtroom
DETECT_CONTRADICTIONS 2026-10-18T15:09:37 — Detecting contradictions
MEASURE_COVERAGE 2026-10-18T15:09:49 — Measuring coverage
RESEARCH_GAPS 2026-10-18T15:09:56 — Thin coverage in 6 areas
SEARCH 2026-10-18T15:09:56 — Round 2: generating queries
RETRIEVE 2026-10-18T15:09:56 — Fetching sources
EXTRACT_EVIDENCE 2026-10-18T15:10:02 — Extracting evidence
SCORE_SOURCES 2026-10-18T15:10:18 — Scoring source quality
DRAFT_ATOMIC_CLAIMS 2026-10-18T15:10:29 — Drafting claims
CLAIM_COURTROOM 2026-10-18T15:10:29 — Running Claim Courtroom
DETECT_CONTRADICTIONS 2026-10-18T15:10:33 — Detecting contradictions
MEASURE_COVERAGE 2026-10-18T15:10:35 — Measuring coverage
RESEARCH_GAPS 2026-10-18T15:10:45 — Thin coverage in 6 areas
SEARCH 2026-10-18T15:10:45 — Round 3: generating queries
RETRIEVE 2026-10-18T15:10:45 — Fetching sources
EXTRACT_EVIDENCE 2026-10-18T15:10:48 — Extracting evidence
SCORE_SOURCES 2026-10-18T15:10:55 — Scoring source quality
DRAFT_ATOMIC_CLAIMS 2026-10-18T15:10:55 — Drafting claims
CLAIM_COURTROOM 2026-10-18T15:10:55 — Running Claim Courtroom
DETECT_CONTRADICTIONS 2026-10-18T15:10:59 — Detecting contradictions
MEASURE_COVERAGE 2026-10-18T15:11:01 — Measuring coverage
SYNTHESIZE 2026-10-18T15:11:11 — Synthesizing final report
VERIFY_FINAL_REPORT 2026-10-18T15:11:21 — Verifying final report
EXPORT 2026-10-18T15:11:21 — Generating certificate
END 2026-10-18T15:11:21 — Research complete

Subquestions

What is the current scale and growth trajectory of solar usage worldwide, measured by installed capacity and electricity generation?

Criteria: Current global installed solar capacity (GW) and solar share of electricity generation, with figures from a recognized source such as IEA, IRENA, or Ember, plus historical growth data covering at least the past 10 years.

How does solar usage vary across geographic regions and countries?

Criteria: Comparative data for at least the top 5 solar-using countries and major world regions, including installed capacity and solar share of generation, with explanation of notable regional differences.

How is solar usage distributed across sectors (residential, commercial and industrial, and utility-scale)?

Criteria: Breakdown of installed capacity or generation by sector for at least one recent year, with trends in each sector's share of total solar deployment.

What economic factors drive or limit solar usage, including equipment costs, levelized cost of electricity, and payback periods?

Criteria: Current cost benchmarks (e.g., module prices, LCOE ranges, typical residential payback periods) from credible sources, with an assessment of how these costs have changed over time and how they affect adoption.

What policies, incentives, and regulations influence solar usage?

Criteria: Identification of major policy mechanisms (e.g., subsidies, tax credits, feed-in tariffs, net metering, renewable portfolio standards) in key markets, with evidence of their observed effects on deployment.

What technical and infrastructure barriers constrain solar usage, such as intermittency, grid integration, and storage requirements?

Criteria: Documented challenges (e.g., curtailment rates, grid interconnection queues, storage costs or adoption) supported by empirical data or authoritative analyses, with a summary of current mitigation approaches.

Search Queries

IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2025 global solar PV installed capacity GW (primary)
IRENA solar PV capacity by country top 10 China United States India Germany Japan (primary)
NREL distributed solar PV residential commercial utility-scale market share installed capacity report (government)

DeepDive Verification Certificate

Run IDcdae3a56cd3d4dcb
QuestionSolar usage
Timestamp2026-10-18T15:11:21.417073+00:00
Modelsanthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
Sources3
Evidence19
Claims Drafted10
Supported2
Rejected8
Contradictions0
Groundedness Rate20.0%
Research Rounds3

Limitations

  • Search coverage depends on Brave Search results and retrievable public pages
  • Certificate metrics measure internal claim-to-evidence integrity, not external truth

This is a DeepDive Verification Certificate. It does not imply certification by any external authority.